BiMe

Mathematical modelling of SOFA scores for medical decision making in community acquired pneumonia (CAP)

Datum
28.03.2019 
Zeit
14:30 Uhr - 16:00 Uhr 
Sprecher
Jens Przybilla 
Institut
Universität Leipzig, Institut für Medizinische Informatik, Statistik und Epidemiologie 
Teil der Serie
IMB - Seminar 
Sprache
en 
Hauptthema
Biologie: Systems Biology (incl. Omics, Networks, Computational), Ökologie und Epidemiologie
Subthemen
Medizin: Immunologie
Ansprechpartner
IMB 
Zusammenfassung

Suitable biomarkers or score systems allowing to characterize disease states or predict success of treatment strategies are common in medicine but so far lacking for hospitalized community acquired pneumonia (CAP). In previous work, we showed that the “Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment” (SOFA), well established to characterize disease states in Sepsis, also works well for characterizing disease states of hospitalized CAP. The SOFA-score is divided in six organ related sub-scores based on medical measurements of the functionality of related organs.

To gain first insights into CAP progression in the hospital from the mathematical and modelling point of view, we modeled the time course of SOFA scores using data from the PROGRESS- and CAPSYS-studies and from CAP-patients in SEPNET-studies. As a first step in modelling we chose the Markov chain method. This probability model assumes that each disease state at time point t+dt depends only on the disease state at time t, i.e. there is no memory of states in the course of CAP further back than one time step. We show that this Markov condition is satisfied in a first approximation and estimated probabilities for the progression of CAP in different scenarios. This provides the basis for further work on individualized prediction of CAP progression in hospitalized patients.

 

Letzte Aktualisierung: 19.03.2019 15:36.

Vortragsort 

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